Beyond Ankara, Riyadh, and Islamabad: Who Might Be Next in the Emerging Defense Accord?

As the defense agreement among Turkey, Saudi Arabia

As the defense agreement among Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan garners attention, speculation has turned to whether other regional powers could eventually sign on. Among the names most frequently mentioned is Egypt, a heavyweight in the Arab world with a formidable military. Yet, according to several analysts, Cairo's potential participation is far from certain, largely due to its historical caution regarding binding security obligations.

Egypt's leadership has traditionally prioritized strategic autonomy, balancing ties with Washington, Gulf states, and other global actors. While President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has maintained close relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, he has also been careful not to entangle Egypt in alliances that might limit its flexibility in regional crises, particularly those involving Libya or the Red Sea. The prospect of a new pact—one that could be perceived as counterbalancing Iran or other blocs—might trigger reservations in Cairo about becoming a frontline state in someone else's conflict.

Beyond Egypt, other countries like Qatar, Jordan, or Azerbaijan could theoretically find common cause with the trio. Qatar, for instance, has deep ties with Turkey through military cooperation and bases, but it also treads carefully to avoid antagonizing neighbors. Jordan, meanwhile, is a close U.S. partner and would likely weigh any new alliance against its existing commitments. Azerbaijan, a key ally of Turkey, has already benefited from Ankara's military support, but its own defense priorities are shaped by the ongoing tensions with Armenia.

Experts note that the current pact, while significant

Experts note that the current pact, while significant, does not resemble a formal NATO-style treaty but rather a flexible framework for joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and defense industry collaboration. This loose structure might make it easier for less-committed nations to join without triggering backlash from other international partners. However, the strategic calculus for each potential member varies, influenced by their unique threats, economic ties, and diplomatic balancing acts.

In the end, the expansion of this defense arrangement will hinge on whether prospective members perceive it as enhancing their security without compromising their broader foreign policy objectives. For now, the initial focus remains on solidifying the trilateral commitment, with watchful eyes on how Egypt—and others—respond to the shifting regional security landscape.